Stock Markets Recover After Unsettled Trading
World stock indexes rose on Thursday despite mixed sentiment among investors. The main topic of trading was Nvidia's forecasts, which, while still positive, fell short of market expectations. At the same time, Bitcoin continued its confident movement, approaching the psychological mark of $100,000.
Nvidia: records and disappointment
Shares of Nvidia (NVDA.O), a company whose technologies are shaping the future of artificial intelligence, started the session with an impressive takeoff, reaching a historical maximum. However, their dynamics later slowed down, and by the end of the day, growth was only 0.53%. Investors were concerned about the company's forecasts: the expected revenue growth was the most modest in the last seven quarters.
"Nvidia's results are still impressive, but the lack of brighter prospects for the fourth quarter may have cooled the market's enthusiasm a little," commented Garrett Melson, portfolio strategist at Natixis Investment Managers.
Wall Street: growth despite losses of giants
On American exchanges, the session ended on a positive note. Major indexes rose, led by gains in utilities, financials, consumer discretionary and industrials. However, communications services remained in the red, led by significant losses in Alphabet (GOOGL.O), which fell 6%.
Alphabet faces a new challenge as US authorities demand Google abandon its Chrome browser to eliminate its dominance in internet search. The lawsuit has left investors nervous and the tech giant's shares tumbling.
More challenges ahead for the market
Despite the upbeat close, investors continue to closely monitor corporate forecasts and the macroeconomic situation. Bitcoin expectations and the future performance of the largest tech companies remain the main themes for the market.
Dow triumphs, Nasdaq moderately gains
US stock indexes ended the session with varying degrees of growth. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 1.06% to 43,870.35, posting a solid gain. The broad-based S&P 500 rose 0.53% to 5,948.71. The Nasdaq Composite, however, was relatively flat, up a modest 0.03% to 18,972.42.
Europe: Tech, Energy Lead Gains
The MSCI Global Index, which tracks stocks around the world, also showed positive momentum, adding 0.38% to 851.05. However, the day was choppy as uncertainty swept the markets. European stocks, as represented by the STOXX (.STOXX), rose 0.41%, led by a rally in the tech and energy sectors.
"There's a bit of a news vacuum in the market right now, which makes it hard to pinpoint a clear direction," said Garrett Melson, portfolio strategist at Natixis Investment Managers.
Bitcoin Heads for $100,000
The cryptocurrency market continues to impress, with Bitcoin, the world's largest digital currency, steadily heading toward the $100,000 mark. It has gained 3.75% in the past 24 hours to reach $98,005. Bitcoin has gained more than 40% since Donald Trump won the presidential election on November 5. Investors attribute this momentum to expectations that the new administration will be favorable to cryptocurrencies.
Ethereum Gains Strength
It's not just Bitcoin that's showing strength: Ethereum is also showing remarkable results. The cryptocurrency has gained 8.77% to end the day at $3,350.80.
Treasury Secretary in Investors' Crosshairs
Markets are tensely awaiting the appointment of the Treasury Secretary in the new Trump administration. The choice will be key to implementing policies that include tax cuts, deregulation, and tariff initiatives.
Global markets are currently awaiting new guidance, with cryptocurrencies already betting on a looser economic policy. Investors continue to closely monitor Trump's actions and their impact on the global financial arena.
A strong labor market supports the dollar
The US dollar rose amid an unexpected decline in jobless claims, indicating a resilient labor market. An additional factor was the statements by Federal Reserve officials, who emphasized the possibility of further interest rate hikes.
However, currency movements were mixed. The dollar fell 0.62% against the Japanese yen, falling to 154.45, but strengthened against the Swiss franc by 0.29%, reaching 0.887.
Dollar Index on the Rise
The dollar index, which tracks the dollar against a basket of major currencies, rose 0.37% to 107, its highest in 13 months. The euro, by contrast, weakened, losing 0.41% to $1.0479.
Russia and Ukraine Shake Up Oil Markets
Oil prices jumped sharply, gaining about 2%, after reports of a missile exchange between Russia and Ukraine, raising concerns about the stability of crude supplies to the global market.
Brent crude futures rose 1.95% to $74.23 a barrel, while WTI futures added 2% to $70.10. Investors are worried that geopolitical tensions could continue to push prices higher.
Fourth straight session of growth
The gold market is showing positive dynamics, strengthening its position as a safe-haven asset. Spot gold rose by 0.8%, reaching $2,671.28 per ounce. US gold futures also went up, adding 0.9% and reaching $2,674.90.
Gold's growth is accompanied by increasing interest from investors who are looking for stability in the face of global economic uncertainty and geopolitical risks.
Financial markets: new challenges and opportunities
The combination of economic factors such as a strong labor market and the Fed's comments with geopolitical risks creates a volatile but opportunity-rich environment for investors. Currency and commodity markets continue to react to the rapidly changing news background, making strategy selection key to success.
Why the US retains its leadership?
US stocks continue to strengthen their positions, significantly outperforming global peers. Investors associate this with hopes for the implementation of the economic program of President-elect Donald Trump. But the key to success will be the administration's ability to avoid escalating trade tensions and keep the budget deficit under control.
The S&P 500 (.SPX) has risen an impressive 24% in 2024, outpacing the major benchmarks in Europe, Asia and emerging markets. The premium of the US index over the MSCI index of more than 40 countries has reached 22 times expected returns, according to LSEG Datastream. This is the largest gap in the last 20 years.
Tech and Economy on the US Side
Despite more than a decade of US stock dominance, the gap has widened this year, thanks to robust US economic growth and strong corporate earnings. The tech sector continues to be a driving force, with the excitement around artificial intelligence driving growth for companies such as Nvidia (NVDA.O).
A New Wave of Investing in Technology
Nvidia, a recognized leader in AI chips, continues to be a bellwether for tech companies. The success of Nvidia and other players in the industry shows that investors are betting on the future of tech, which will be defined by artificial intelligence.
"The US stock market is currently playing to its strengths: innovation, corporate profits, and economic resilience," analysts say.
How long will the US maintain its leadership?
While the current situation seems optimistic, the market is not immune to risks. Investors are closely monitoring the steps of the new administration, especially on tax policy, tariffs, and the budget. Any deviation from this course could be a turning point for the market.
Global Competition: Can the World Catch Up with the US?
While other regions, including Europe and emerging markets, are struggling with challenges such as slowing economic growth and geopolitical instability, the US continues to set the standard. However, the competition is not abating, and global markets may start to close the gap in the coming years.
US stocks remain at the top, but the question is how long this position will last. Investors should be prepared for changes and watch developments closely.
Taxes, deregulation and tariffs: a recipe for success?
Donald Trump's economic platform of tax cuts, deregulation and the use of tariffs as leverage has provoked mixed reactions. However, many experts believe that these measures can strengthen the US leadership on the global stage, despite possible side effects such as inflation and trade conflicts.
"Given the stimulative nature of the new administration's policies, US stocks will struggle to find worthy rivals at least until the end of 2025," says Venu Krishna, head of US equity strategy at Barclays.
Investors vote for the US
Following the November 5 election, inflows into US equity funds have reached record levels. In the week since the vote, investors have poured more than $80 billion into U.S. assets. By contrast, European and emerging markets have seen significant capital outflows, according to Deutsche Bank.
This shift in priorities reflects growing confidence in the U.S. market amid expectations for higher returns and stability.
U.S. companies continue to dominate
One of the main reasons for the resilience of the U.S. market is impressive corporate earnings growth. LSEG Datastream forecasts S&P 500 earnings to grow 9.9% in 2024 and 14.2% in 2025.
By comparison, Europe's Stoxx 600 index is expected to grow more modestly: 1.8% this year and 8.1% next year. The gap underscores the U.S. lead in corporate profitability.
"America remains the region that has the highest earnings growth and maintains strong profitability," says Michael Arone, chief investment strategist at State Street Global Advisors.
What's next for the market?
Experts note that even if global markets begin to catch up with the US, the US market will remain a key point of attraction for investors due to its sustainable growth and pro-business policies.
However, the question remains: will the Trump administration be able to balance ambitious reforms without causing side effects that could undermine this success? Investors will continue to watch every step, assessing how the implementation of the economic program will affect the dynamics of global markets.
$14 trillion versus Europe: the imbalance is growing
The largest US tech companies play a key role in the country's economic leadership. The five giants - Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon and Alphabet - are valued at a whopping $14 trillion. By comparison, the market capitalization of all 600 companies in the European STOXX 600 index is about $11 trillion, according to LSEG data.
It is the strong performance of these corporations that accounts for much of the growth of the S&P 500 index, making it a favorite for investors.
GDP growth outpaces global indicators
Forecasts for the coming years show that the United States will continue to outpace other countries in terms of economic growth. According to estimates by the International Monetary Fund, US GDP will increase by 2.8% in 2024 and by 2.2% in 2025. In comparison, the economies of the eurozone countries expect modest growth: 0.8% this year and 1.2% next year.
This advantage is supported by strong support for the technology sector, which continues to be the engine of development.
Import duties as a pressure tool
One of Donald Trump's key initiatives is to increase import tariffs. Mike Mullaney, director of global markets research at Boston Partners, believes that such measures, even with certain costs, will strengthen the position of the United States.
"If tariffs in the range of 10-20% are imposed on goods from Europe, they will suffer much more than we will," Mullaney noted.
Trump is betting on protecting the American market, which could become an additional lever for strengthening the economy.
Republican control strengthens its position
The consolidation of Republican power in Washington opens up more opportunities for Trump to implement his agenda. This has already affected economists' forecasts. Deutsche Bank has improved its expectations for US GDP growth in 2025, increasing its forecast from 2.2% to 2.5%.
The political support of the Trump administration, technological leadership, and ambitious plans for economic reform make the United States a central player on the world stage. The only question is how long it will be able to maintain this advantage.
Limited capabilities of Congress
While tax cuts and deregulation remain the main drivers of Donald Trump's economic program, a narrow majority in Congress could limit the implementation of the most radical initiatives. Among them are tariffs, which have already caused active debate. As analysts note, the administration will take into account the reaction of the markets to avoid undue pressure.
S&P 500 Forecasts: From 5100 to 6600
Experts at UBS Global Wealth Management predict that the S&P 500 index could reach 6600 next year. Such growth is due to several factors: progress in artificial intelligence, lower interest rates, tax reforms, and deregulation.
However, a scenario of a full-scale trade war with China and other partners could have negative consequences. If countries begin to take retaliatory measures against American tariffs, the index could fall to 5100 points. UBS emphasizes that in this case, global markets will also suffer.
Government contracts and pharmaceuticals under pressure
Not all industries are enthusiastic about Trump's reforms. Concerns about reducing bureaucracy have already hit shares of government contractors. Drugmakers have also found themselves in a difficult situation after the appointment of Robert F. Kennedy Jr., a well-known vaccine skeptic, to the post of head of the Department of Health and Human Services.
Such decisions create uncertainty for individual sectors of the economy, increasing volatility in the stock market.
Budget deficit and bonds under pressure
A radical tax cut carries the risk of increasing the national debt. It is these fears that triggered the recent sell-off in US bonds, which led to an increase in the yield on 10-year notes.
Financial experts warn that a possible increase in the deficit could put pressure on the market, creating problems for long-term investments.
On the brink of change: what to expect from Trump's policies?
The reforms promised by the administration create both opportunities and risks. The forecasts for the US economy remain strong, but their implementation will depend on the ability to find a balance between ambitious initiatives and the reaction of the markets.
Investors, in turn, are closely monitoring every step in order to adapt their strategies in time in a rapidly changing economic environment.
