Analysis of transactions in the EUR / USD pair

The test of 0.9765 occurred at the time when the MACD line was just starting to move below zero, which was a good reason to sell. It resulted in a price decrease of over 40 pips. As for purchases at 0.9725, they sent euro up another 40 pips. No other signals appeared for the rest of the day.

Having no reports in the Euro area last Friday morning put pressure on euro. Then, it intensified when consumer confidence in the region came out weaker than forecasts. Demand only returned when rumors spread that the ECB is ready to act more aggressively on its monetary policy.

Today, reports on business activity in Germany, France, Italy and the whole Eurozone are due, followed by the composite PMI of the region. A decrease in the latter will lead to a fall in euro. In the afternoon, similar reports are expected on the US, which could prompt a rise in dollar, provided that the figures are at a more or less acceptable level. If, for some reason, the indices also start to decline sharply, euro will rise against dollar.

For long positions:

Buy euro when the quote reaches 0.9878 (green line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 0.9944. Growth will occur if statistics in the Eurozone exceed expectations.

Take note that when buying, the MACD line should be above zero or is starting to rise from it. Euro can also be bought at 0.9832, but the MACD line should be in the oversold area as only by that will the market reverse to 0.9878 and 0.9944.

For short positions:

Sell euro when the quote reaches 0.9832 (red line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 0.9774. Pressure will intensify if economic statistics in the Euro area are weaker than expected.

Take note that when selling, the MACD line should be below zero or is starting to move down from it. Euro can also be sold at 0.9878, but the MACD line should be in the overbought area as only by that will the market reverse to 0.9832 and 0.9774.

What's on the chart:

The thin green line is the key level at which you can place long positions in the EUR/USD pair.

The thick green line is the target price, since the quote is unlikely to move above this level.

The thin red line is the level at which you can place short positions in the EUR/USD pair.

The thick red line is the target price, since the quote is unlikely to move below this level.

MACD line - when entering the market, it is important to be guided by the overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Novice traders need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations in the rate. If you decide to trade during the release of news, then always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember that for successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan. Spontaneous trading decision based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.