empty
28.03.2025 09:19 AM
Markets Have Found the Culprits

If you don't get it the first time, you will the second. The S&P 500 sell-off, led by U.S. and foreign automaker shares, continued a second day after the imposition of 25% tariffs. Donald Trump threatened the European Union and Canada with retaliation should they respond jointly to the import duties, and companies have begun tallying up losses. The broad stock index is confidently moving toward the lower boundary of its medium-term trading range of 5500–5790, but blaming only the White House occupant for all its troubles would be misguided.

The sell-off of overvalued "Magnificent Seven" companies, slowing corporate profit growth, and a weakening U.S. economy contribute to a capital shift from North America to Europe. European indices are currently outperforming the S&P 500 by a wide margin. However, according to the world's largest asset manager, this advantage may not last long. BlackRock believes that Germany's fiscal stimulus will primarily benefit banks and defense companies — a very narrow group. Therefore, one shouldn't count on the EuroStoxx 50 and DAX 40 rally to continue at the same pace.

Performance of European vs. U.S. Stock Indices

This image is no longer relevant

By contrast, the U.S. stock market will likely receive a fresh boost once the situation surrounding Donald Trump's protectionist policies becomes clearer. Many companies will adapt to the tariffs, enabling the S&P 500 to grow again.

But first, the broad stock index would do well to shed some dead weight. In 2025, that weight comes from the "Magnificent Seven" stocks. Back in February, they were trading at 45 times forward earnings. Only the sell-off has brought the P/E ratio down to 35 — still high, though the 11% drop in that figure is striking.

Q1 earnings season kicks off in a few weeks, and Wall Street's 7.1% earnings forecast is impressive. But that's four percentage points lower than what experts were projecting at the end of 2024. The discrepancy in estimates is above the historical average. Forecasts have been cut across all 11 S&P 500 sectors, and earnings growth is expected to slow in nine.

Earnings Forecast Trends by S&P 500 Sectors

This image is no longer relevant

This image is no longer relevant

The stronger-than-expected Q4 GDP reading of 2.4% shouldn't be misleading. For January–March, Bloomberg analysts expect GDP growth to slow to 1–1.5%, and the Atlanta Fed's leading indicator signals an even weaker pace — just 0.2%. Inflation remains elevated, tying the Fed's hands and preventing the central bank from throwing markets a lifeline.

Technically, on the daily chart, the S&P 500 continues its previously forecasted move from the upper boundary of its consolidation range (5500–5790) toward the lower bound. It makes sense to hold and even build on short positions once support at 5670 is broken — especially since the Broadening Wedge pattern is playing out clearly.

Marek Petkovich,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Select timeframe
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hour
4
hours
1
day
1
week
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

GBP/USD Overview – April 23: The British Pound Can't Stop Smiling

On Tuesday, the GBP/USD currency pair traded much more calmly, yet again showed signs of a "maxed-out flat" pattern. As previously noted, the US dollar has only had two behaviors

Paolo Greco 04:56 2025-04-23 UTC+2

EUR/USD Overview – April 23: Another Calm Before Another Collapse?

The EUR/USD currency pair traded more calmly on Tuesday than on Monday. The US dollar managed to avoid another fall, but it's too early to celebrate. The greenback can collapse

Paolo Greco 04:56 2025-04-23 UTC+2

USD/JPY. On the Threshold of the 139th Figure

The USD/JPY pair has been in a consistent downtrend for the fourth consecutive week. On Tuesday, sellers pushed the pair to the edge of the 139.00 area, hitting the lowest

Irina Manzenko 00:46 2025-04-23 UTC+2

The Dollar Has Been Replaced. Nature Abhors a Vacuum

Fear paralyzes, but action persists. Investors are slowly overcoming their concerns over Donald Trump's attacks on the independence of the Federal Reserve and are starting to lock in profits

Marek Petkovich 00:08 2025-04-23 UTC+2

Bitcoin Took Its Chance

Slow and steady wins the race! Bitcoin quietly broke through to its highest levels since early March amid Donald Trump's attacks on Jerome Powell. When the independence of the Federal

Marek Petkovich 00:08 2025-04-23 UTC+2

XAU/USD. Analysis and Forecast

After setting a new all-time high at $3500 under overbought conditions, gold prices are pulling back. Nevertheless, bullish sentiment remains strong due to persistent concerns over the potential economic fallout

Irina Yanina 19:02 2025-04-22 UTC+2

EUR/GBP. Analysis and Forecast

The EUR/GBP pair is losing ground today after two consecutive days of gains, trading near the psychological level of 0.8600. The pound is receiving support from optimism surrounding ongoing trade

Irina Yanina 11:52 2025-04-22 UTC+2

Why the U.S. Dollar Keeps Falling

The U.S. dollar fell to its lowest level since January 2024 after President Donald Trump's criticism of the Federal Reserve sparked concerns over the central bank's independence. The dollar weakened

Jakub Novak 11:12 2025-04-22 UTC+2

Loss of Confidence in the Fed Will Pressure the Dollar (Bitcoin Likely to Continue Rising, USD/CAD to Decline)

On Monday, the U.S. stock market experienced a sharp decline, pulling down many global exchanges, as the "turbulent" actions of President Trump continue to shift from one hot topic

Pati Gani 09:00 2025-04-22 UTC+2

Market: Still Waters Run Deep

It's impossible to inject capital into an economy destabilized by politics. Capital continues to flow out of the United States, and Donald Trump's attacks on the Federal Reserve only accelerate

Marek Petkovich 08:52 2025-04-22 UTC+2
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.