Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the Japanese Yen

Testing the 150.05 level in the first half of the day occurred when the MACD indicator was significantly below zero, limiting the pair's bearish potential. For this reason, I refrained from selling the dollar. The dollar's ongoing struggles against the yen persist, and any comments from Bank of Japan officials about potential interest rate hikes are likely to worsen the situation. Market participants await clear signals on Japan's monetary policy, which directly affects the yen's appeal to investors.

In the second half of the day, attention will shift to the US ISM Manufacturing Index and a speech by FOMC member Christopher Waller. The US manufacturing sector is expected to have contracted further in November, which would negatively impact the dollar while supporting the yen's safe-haven appeal. Weak data is likely to push USD/JPY further downward. Comments from Federal Reserve representatives could prevent a sharp dollar decline, but this would require hawkish statements about maintaining interest rates at the December FOMC meeting.

For my intraday strategy, I will focus on implementing Scenarios #1 and #2 for selling.

Scenario #1

I plan to buy USD/JPY today at the entry point near 150.45 (green line on the chart) with a target of 150.69 (thicker green line on the chart). Near 150.98, I will close purchases and open sales in the opposite direction, expecting a 30-35 point downward movement. Any potential growth in the pair is likely to be a correction.

Important: Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above zero and just beginning to rise.

Scenario #2

I also plan to buy USD/JPY today if the 150.05 level is tested twice consecutively, with the MACD indicator in the oversold area. This should limit the pair's bearish potential and trigger an upward reversal. Growth toward the 150.45 and 150.98 levels is expected.

Signal for Selling

Scenario #1

I plan to sell USD/JPY after a breakout below the 150.05 level (red line on the chart), expecting a quick decline. The key target for sellers is 149.57, at which point I will close sales and open immediate purchases in the opposite direction, anticipating a 20-25 point upward correction. A larger correction increases the likelihood of renewed selling pressure on the pair.

Important: Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below zero and just beginning to decline.

Scenario #2

I also plan to sell USD/JPY today if the 150.45 level is tested twice consecutively, with the MACD indicator in the overbought area. This should limit the pair's bullish potential and trigger a downward reversal. A decline toward the 150.05 and 149.57 levels is expected.

Important Notes for Beginners

Beginner traders in the Forex market should exercise caution when making trading decisions. Before significant fundamental reports are released, it is advisable to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price swings. If you choose to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you risk quickly losing your entire deposit, especially if trading large volumes without proper money management.

Remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one outlined above. Reacting spontaneously to market conditions is a losing strategy for intraday traders.