empty
31.03.2025 01:01 PM
April to play crucial role in Europe's gas future

Europe's gas sector is entering a critical phase, as the end of the heating season sets the stage for refilling storage facilities, which are now two-thirds empty after the winter months.

Typically, traders play a central role in replenishing reserves, since summer gas prices are generally lower, allowing them to profit by storing large volumes for sale during the next heating season when demand rises again.

This image is no longer relevant

However, industry experts note that this year is far from typical. The first truly cold winter since Europe lost most of its pipeline gas supply from Russia depleted reserves more rapidly than usual. The situation was further exacerbated when Ukraine halted the remaining transit flows on January 1. The resulting market squeeze has led to a persistent rise in summer gas prices, which have now surpassed next winter's prices.

A key question now is what role governments will play in ensuring storage is replenished. State intervention could range from direct subsidies for producers and consumers to the establishment of strategic reserves and export restrictions. Each of these options comes with trade-offs. Subsidies may encourage production and lower costs for consumers, but they can also distort the market and lead to inefficient resource allocation.

There is still ample time before the next winter season, but many market participants believe that the first few weeks of April will offer a clear indication of whether stakeholders are ready to begin restocking despite the unfavorable price structure, or whether they intend to wait for more advantageous market conditions.

The stakes are high. If the European Union enters the next winter with partially filled storage, the region could face a sharp spike in prices in the event of severe cold or other unexpected disruptions. European Commission rules stipulate that storage facilities must be 90% full by November 1. However, recent proposals and discussions about introducing flexibility in the timeline for reaching these targets have created significant uncertainty. This has caused price fluctuations and left traders guessing about how the rules will ultimately be applied.

This image is no longer relevant

Gas futures declined amid speculation that storage targets might be relaxed, along with optimism about a possible resolution to the conflict in Ukraine. According to some economists, gas prices are currently about 50% higher than a year ago. The price—just above €40 per megawatt-hour—is expected to remain at or above current levels over the next few weeks, depending heavily on liquefied natural gas (LNG) demand this summer.

Regarding the technical outlook for natural gas (NG), buyers are now focused on reclaiming the 4.224 level. A breakout above this range would open a direct path toward 4.373 and the more significant resistance at 4.502. The furthest upside target lies in the 4.600 area. On the downside, initial support stands around 4.062. A breakdown below this level would likely send the instrument lower to 3.915, with the most distant bearish target located near 3.734.

MobileTrader

MobileTrader: trading platform near at hand!

Download and start right now!

Miroslaw Bawulski,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Gas
Summary
Buy
Urgency
1 day
Analytic
Maxim Magdalinin
Start trade
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

The Market Taken Hostage

Will the White House cross the Rubicon by initiating the dismissal of Jerome Powell from his position as Chair of the Federal Reserve? That would deal another blow to financial

Marek Petkovich 09:16 2025-04-18 UTC+2

Why Are Markets Frozen and What Are They Waiting For? (There is a possibility of continued Bitcoin and Ethereum consolidation in sideways ranges)

Today is Good Friday, a day Christians observe worldwide across all denominations. Market activity has noticeably decreased ahead of the Easter holiday, but this isn't the main reason for market

Pati Gani 09:00 2025-04-18 UTC+2

What to Pay Attention to on April 18? A Breakdown of Fundamental Events for Beginners

There are no macroeconomic events scheduled for Friday—not in the US, the Eurozone, Germany, or the UK. Therefore, even if the market were paying any attention to the macroeconomic backdrop

Paolo Greco 06:51 2025-04-18 UTC+2

GBP/USD Overview – April 18. Powell's Speech: Nothing Positive for the Dollar

The GBP/USD currency pair continued to trade relatively calmly on Thursday, showing only a minimal downward bias. We still can't classify the current movement as a "pullback" or "correction."

Paolo Greco 03:48 2025-04-18 UTC+2

EUR/USD Overview – April 18: The ECB Predictably Cut Rates, and the Market Predictably Ignored It

The EUR/USD currency pair spent most of the day moving sideways. When the European Central Bank meeting results were released, the market saw a small emotional reaction, but nothing fundamentally

Paolo Greco 03:48 2025-04-18 UTC+2

The Dollar Undid Everything Itself

He meant well, but it turned out the usual way. Donald Trump firmly believes that tariffs can replace income tax, generate massive revenue for the budget, and bring about

Marek Petkovich 03:39 2025-04-18 UTC+2

XAU/USD: Analysis and Forecast

Gold is undergoing a corrective pullback today as traders take profits following its recent surge to a new all-time high. This decline, although moderate, is driven by several factors, including

Irina Yanina 12:00 2025-04-17 UTC+2

EUR/USD: Analysis and Forecast

regarding upcoming changes in monetary policy from both the European Central Bank (ECB) and the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed). Anticipation of a 25 basis point rate cut by the ECB—its

Irina Yanina 11:55 2025-04-17 UTC+2

Is the Euro Ready for Another Rate Cut?

We'll find out very soon whether the euro is once again prepared for the European Central Bank (ECB) to continue easing monetary policy. Today, the ECB is expected to lower

Jakub Novak 11:38 2025-04-17 UTC+2

Powell Sees a More Restrictive Fed Policy This Year

The euro showed little reaction, while the pound slipped slightly against the U.S. dollar following yesterday's speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. According to Powell, the Fed is currently

Jakub Novak 11:34 2025-04-17 UTC+2
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.