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27.01.2025 01:11 PM
Trump Takes Action

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The 4-hour chart wave structure for #SPX looks ambiguous, and I recommend analyzing it in conjunction with the 24-hour chart (see below). The first thing that stands out on the 24-hour chart is the global five-wave structure, which is so extensive that it doesn't fit fully into the terminal window, even at the smallest scale. Simply put, U.S. stock indices have been rising for a very long time. And as we know, trends eventually reverse.

Currently, wave 5 of 5 is still forming. The index has made two unsuccessful attempts to break the 6093 level, equivalent to 200.0% on the Fibonacci scale, and has started to pull back from its peaks. In my opinion, we are likely to see a new corrective wave or a series of waves soon. The U.S. stock market is overheated.

Switching to the 4-hour chart (see above), a completed five-wave structure is visible, followed by a complex corrective pattern. It's important to remember that wave structures should be clear, straightforward, and avoid creating ambiguity. The more complex the wave structure, the harder it is to profit from it. It's best to focus now on the two failed attempts to break through 6093.

Trump Begins Imposing Sanctions and Tariffs

The #SPX index fell by 109 points on Friday and Monday, a considerable drop. A gap recorded on Friday signals strong selling pressure. I believe that anticipating a decline in one of the key U.S. stock indices is reasonable in the near term.

Meanwhile, Donald Trump imposed initial sanctions—25% tariffs on all imports from Colombia. This happened after the U.S. sent two deportation planes that Bogota refused to accept, citing violations in the deportation procedures of Colombian nationals. The verbal exchange didn't last long, as Trump immediately announced tariffs on Colombian imports and the expulsion of all embassy officials from the U.S., prompting Bogota to make the "right" decision.

If this strategy works with other nations, it could be considered highly effective. However, the stock market is not pleased with such news, and neither is the cryptocurrency market.

I don't believe that Trump directly caused the fall in the S&P 500 or Bitcoin. In both cases, I had already mentioned the high probability of trend reversals. Trump's influence on these markets is more about fear than favorability. Trump's policies could create economic challenges, as his vision for the U.S. over the next four years doesn't align with the Federal Reserve's independent approach to economic management. As a result, U.S. businesses and investors in American companies are cautious about Trump's presidency.

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Key Conclusions

Based on the analysis of #SPX, I conclude that the instrument is nearing the end of its bullish trend. In the current situation, I recommend focusing on the 6093 level and Trump's short-term policies.

Trump's recent decisions, including trade wars, tariffs, and import duties, threaten the stability of the U.S. economy and its companies. The likelihood of seeing a new bearish trend has increased significantly. I expect a decline in the index toward the 5793 level in the near future.

On a larger scale, the wave structure is much clearer. A distinct five-wave pattern is visible, with another five-wave structure within the fifth wave. This fifth wave may be nearing its completion. Therefore, I would prepare for a lengthy and complex correction, which may have already begun.

Key Principles of My Analysis

  1. Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex structures are difficult to trade and often require adjustments.
  2. If you're unsure about the market's behavior, it's better to stay out.
  3. There is never 100% certainty in market direction. Always use protective Stop Loss orders.
  4. Wave analysis can and should be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.
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