Fundamental Analysis

During the Asian session today, the USD/CAD pair attempted to regain positive momentum after pulling back from the previous day's highest level since April 2020. This recovery was supported by a combination of factors.

The conflict in the Middle East eased after U.S. President Joe Biden announced that Lebanon and Israel had agreed to a ceasefire. Consequently, oil prices did not benefit from a modest rebound from the previous day's low.

In addition, threats from U.S. President Joe Biden regarding the introduction of tariffs have continued to weigh on the commodity-linked Canadian dollar. Meanwhile, expectations of a less dovish Federal Reserve policy have provided a tailwind for the U.S. dollar, further supporting a positive outlook for the USD/CAD pair.

This fundamental backdrop supports bullish traders, indicating that spot prices are likely to trend upward in the near term.

Technical Analysis

From a technical perspective, the rebound from the horizontal support zone at 1.3930–1.3928, combined with positive oscillators on the daily chart, supports the outlook for further short-term gains in USD/CAD. However, it remains advisable to wait for a sustained rally above the psychological level of 1.4100 before opening new long positions. A decisive break beyond this level could enable spot prices to challenge the multi-year high and approach the significant level of 1.4200.

On the other hand, the 1.4045 level, marked by the Asian session low, provides immediate support. Further declines below this zone could present buying opportunities, but a decisive break below the psychological level of 1.4000 would negate the constructive setup.

Subsequently, the USD/CAD pair could weaken further, declining steadily toward the horizontal support at 1.3930–1.3928, the round figure of 1.3900, and the next support at 1.3855, potentially extending to the monthly swing low.