empty
14.08.2024 12:18 AM
Key labor market and inflation data will reduce uncertainty regarding the pound. Overview of GBP/USD

The Bank of England started its easing cycle on August 1, and the market expects a further 50 basis points cut by the end of the year. The Bank of England's chief economist, Huw Pill, voted against the cut and warned against expecting more rate cuts in the near future. The market considered this and currently assigns less than a 50% probability to a rate cut next month.

Today's agenda includes updated data on the labor market and inflation. Labor market data for July was released this morning, and it turned out to be significantly unexpected. Average wage growth, excluding bonuses, slowed from 5.7% to 5.4%, which seems like good news in terms of slowing inflation. However, forecasts had suggested a fall to 4.6%. Now, the likelihood of a BoE rate cut next month has become even less likely, which is a frankly bullish signal for the pound.

This image is no longer relevant

At the same time, unemployment rose from 4.4% to 4.7%, and the number of jobless claims was 135,000, compared to a forecast of 14.5%. The sharp increase in claims indicates that the economy is closer to a recession than previously thought, and this figure, on the contrary, provides grounds to continue lowering rates.

As we can see, the market received two opposing signals on Tuesday and reacted with only a slight spike in volatility. It seems that significant conclusions will be drawn on Wednesday after the release of the consumer inflation report.

The NIESR Institute, analyzing various statistical data (CPI, PPI, 10-year UK government bond yields, effective GBP exchange rate, BoE bank rate) within its own forecasting model, expects July inflation to be between 2.2% and 2.4%. This is higher than the previous month and aligns with market forecasts. Interestingly, the forecasts suggest that inflation will decrease to 2% in September, which supports further rate cuts, but then, due to accumulated effects, it will rise back to 2.9% by early 2025, which suggests caution regarding rate cuts.

As we can see, the uncertainty is too high to make a definitive forecast. The market balances expectations for the Federal Reserve and BoE rates, which provides a driver for movement in either direction. However, the accumulated uncertainty needs resolution.

This image is no longer relevant

The net long GBP position decreased by $3.0 billion to $5.9 billion over the reporting week. Despite the significant decline, the bullish bias persists, and although the calculated price has lost some momentum, it is still above the long-term average.

Kuvat Raharjo,
Especialista em análise na InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Selecionar intervalo de tempo
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hora
4
horas
1
dia
1
s.
Ganhe com as variações das taxas das criptomoedas com a InstaForex.
Baixe o MetaTrader 4 e abra a sua primeira operação.
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    PARTICIPE DO CONCURSO

Recommended Stories

O dólar estava bem intencionado. Mas as coisas correram como de costume

Cuidado com o que você deseja. O desejo de Donald Trump de tornar os Estados Unidos grandes novamente e retornar a uma era de ouro está saindo pela culatra, corroendo

Marek Petkovich 17:37 2025-04-22 UTC+2

A perda de confiança no Fed pressionará o dólar (é provável que o Bitcoin continue subindo e que o USD/CAD caia)

Na segunda-feira, o mercado de ações dos Estados Unidos sofreu uma queda acentuada, arrastando diversas bolsas globais, à medida que as ações "turbulentas" do presidente Trump continuam a transitar

Pati Gani 17:22 2025-04-22 UTC+2

Mercado: Águas paradas são profundas

É impossível injetar capital em uma economia desestabilizada pela política. O capital continua a fluir para fora dos Estados Unidos, e os ataques de Donald Trump ao Federal Reserve apenas

Marek Petkovich 17:08 2025-04-22 UTC+2

Em que prestar atenção em 22 de abril? Uma análise dos eventos fundamentais para iniciantes

Não há eventos macroeconômicos programados para terça-feira — nem nos EUA, nem na zona do euro, nem na Alemanha, nem no Reino Unido. Portanto, mesmo que o mercado estivesse atento

Paolo Greco 16:12 2025-04-22 UTC+2

Será que Trump demitirá Powell?

O índice do dólar americano renovou sua mínima de três anos nesta segunda-feira, caindo para a faixa dos 97 pontos — pela primeira vez desde março de 2022. A moeda

Irina Manzenko 15:54 2025-04-22 UTC+2

Por que o dólar americano continua a cair

O dólar dos Estados Unidos caiu para o nível mais baixo desde janeiro de 2024, após críticas do presidente Donald Trump ao Federal Reserve levantarem preocupações sobre a independência

Jakub Novak 14:55 2025-04-22 UTC+2

EUR/GBP. Análise e previsão

O par EUR/GBP recua nesta sessão, após dois dias consecutivos de ganhos, sendo negociado próximo ao nível psicológico de 0,8600. A libra encontra suporte no otimismo em torno das negociações

Irina Yanina 13:54 2025-04-22 UTC+2

Libra esterlina: Previsão semanal

Vários relatórios interessantes foram divulgados no Reino Unido, mas tiveram pouco impacto nas ações dos participantes do mercado. A demanda pela libra esterlina aumentou em todos os cinco dias, exceto

Chin Zhao 15:23 2025-04-21 UTC+2

Dólar americano: Previsão semanal

Com base na análise do EUR/USD, concluo que o par continua construindo uma nova fase de tendência de alta. As ações de Donald Trump reverteram a tendência de baixa anterior

Chin Zhao 15:16 2025-04-21 UTC+2

EUR/GBP. Análise e previsão

O fortalecimento do par está vinculado ao aumento do euro em meio à fraqueza do dólar dos E.U.A., impulsionado por preocupações sobre uma possível recessão nos E.U.A. e questões sobre

Irina Yanina 15:05 2025-04-21 UTC+2
Não pode falar agora?
Faça sua pergunta no chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.