empty
27.01.2025 01:07 PM
Forecast for EUR/USD on January 27, 2025

On Friday, the EUR/USD pair continued its upward movement, consolidating above the 100.0% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.0437 and testing the 127.2% Fibonacci level at 1.0507. A rebound from this level worked in favor of the U.S. dollar, leading to a decline toward the 1.0437 level. The upward trend channel confirms the bullish sentiment in the market.

This image is no longer relevant

The situation with the waves remains clear. The last completed downward wave broke the low of the previous wave, while the latest upward wave (still incomplete) has surpassed the previous two peaks. This confirms the completion of the bearish trend. A new downward wave could soon begin forming, but for the bears to establish a new trend, the price needs to return to the 1.0179 level or form a more complex wave structure that takes control.

The information flow on Friday was favorable for the bulls but not outstanding. I believe bullish traders exceeded expectations for both Friday and the entire past week. The euro appreciated too significantly, considering the informational backdrop, which was mostly absent on most days. By information background, I mean economic data. However, it's possible the market was trading "on Trump." If so, trader sentiment will soon depend on this factor.

On Friday, Germany's business activity indices delivered better-than-expected results, as did those for the Eurozone. U.S. indices were also decent but fell short of their European counterparts. Additionally, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index came in weaker than traders expected. While the dollar's decline was justified, it was overly strong.

This week will be pivotal, with the ECB and Federal Reserve meetings on the agenda. ECB President Christine Lagarde will deliver speeches almost daily, and news from Donald Trump will likely continue to flood in. Thus, there will be ample news, and its influence on trader sentiment will be significant.

This image is no longer relevant

4-Hour Chart Analysis:

On the 4-hour chart, the pair consolidated above the 127.2% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.0436. This suggests that the upward movement could continue toward the next Fibonacci level of 100.0% at 1.0603. The euro has also broken above the downward trend channel, indicating a gradual shift to a bullish trend. However, how long this bullish trend will last remains unclear. A bearish divergence on the CCI indicator signals a potential decline in the near term.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

This image is no longer relevant

In the latest reporting week, professional players opened 4,905 long positions and 6,994 short positions. The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" group remains bearish, suggesting a potential continuation of the pair's decline. The total number of long positions held by speculators now stands at 167,000, while short positions amount to 230,000.

For 18 consecutive weeks, major players have been selling the euro. This signifies a bearish trend without exception. While bulls occasionally dominate for individual weeks, these instances are exceptions rather than the rule. The key driver of the dollar's weakness—expectations of monetary policy easing by the Federal Reserve—has already been priced in. Unless new reasons to sell the dollar emerge, the U.S. currency's recovery remains more likely.

News Calendar for the U.S. and Eurozone:

  • Eurozone: ECB President Christine Lagarde's Speech (15:35 UTC).

On January 27, the economic calendar contains just one notable event, but it is significant enough to moderately impact market sentiment.

EUR/USD Forecast and Recommendations for Traders:

  • Sales: Selling the pair is advisable after consolidation below the upward trend channel on the hourly chart.
  • Purchases: Buying opportunities were available after a rebound from the 1.0336–1.0346 zone, targeting 1.0435–1.0448, and this target has already been reached. New buying opportunities arise upon a bounce from the 1.0437 level on the hourly chart, targeting 1.0507.

Fibonacci levels are plotted from 1.0437–1.0179 on the hourly chart and from 1.0603–1.1214 on the 4-hour chart.

Seleccione el marco de tiempo
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hora
4
horas
1
día
1
s.
Gana con los cambios en el valor de las criptomonedas con InstaForex.
Descarga MetaTrader 4 y abre tu primera operación.
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    UNIRSE AL CONCURSO

Recommended Stories

Bitcoin 30 Enero - análisis técnico de la situación

A pesar de marcar un nuevo máximo la semana pasada (109986), el Bitcoin detuvo su tendencia alcista y comenzó a formar incertidumbre. Hasta ahora, el formato semanal ha proyectado

Evangelos Poulakis 07:24 2025-01-30 UTC+2

#SPX (contrato CFD sobre futuros del SP500). Esperamos que la subida continúe

El contrato CFD sobre futuros del S&P 500 se recupera vigorosamente tras una caída local del lunes por la oleada de noticias sobre el éxito de la empresa china DeepSeek

Pati Gani 11:06 2025-01-29 UTC+2

Nasdaq 100. Se esperan nuevos máximos históricos

La toma de posesión hoy de Donald Trump marcará el inicio del segundo mandato de su presidencia, acompañado de promesas de reforzar la posición de EE. UU. en la escena

Anna Zotova 10:00 2025-01-20 UTC+2

Bitcoin – análisis técnico de la situación

El año pasado los principales logros y ventajas estuvieron del lado de los compradores. El año 2024 les trajo un nuevo máximo histórico (108362,36), superando el máximo anterior registrado

Evangelos Poulakis 06:55 2025-01-20 UTC+2

Análisis técnico para la semana del 16 al 21 de diciembre, del par de divisas GBP/USD.

La semana pasada, el par, moviéndose hacia abajo, rompió el nivel de retroceso del 14,6% – 1,2624 (línea de puntos azul), cerrando la vela semanal en 1,2618. Durante la próxima

Stefan Doll 09:17 2024-12-16 UTC+2

EUR/USD. 10 de diciembre. Los toros agotaron su potencial.

Buenos días, estimados traders. El par EUR/USD el lunes realizó un rebote desde el nivel de corrección del 323,6% – 1,0532, una ligera subida y un regreso al nivel 1,0532

Samir Klishi 11:31 2024-12-10 UTC+2

GBP/USD. 10 de diciembre. La libra está estancada y esperando la inflación estadounidense

Buenos días, estimados traders. En el marco temporal de una hora, el par GBP/USD el lunes volvió a la zona de resistencia 1,2788–1,2801, rebotó desde ella, giró a favor

Samir Klishi 11:31 2024-12-10 UTC+2

Pronóstico para el par EUR/USD del 24 de junio de 2024

EUR/USD La caída del euro del viernes no fue grande, pero sí cualitativa: los índices bursátiles, las materias primas y los metales preciosos bajaron junto con él. El par EUR/USD

Laurie Bailey 09:00 2024-06-24 UTC+2

Pronóstico del par GBP/USD para el 24 de junio de 2024

GBP/USD La libra esterlina bajó 13 pips el viernes. Se detuvo en la línea Kruzenshtern de la escala diaria. Esta mañana el precio se está consolidando en esta línea, probablemente

Laurie Bailey 08:53 2024-06-24 UTC+2

Pronóstico del par USD/JPY para el 24 de junio de 2024

USD/JPY El viernes, el dólar repitió el carácter impulsivo de la subida del jueves, saltando 86 pips. El nivel objetivo de 160,40 ya está cerca, y supera el máximo

Laurie Bailey 08:40 2024-06-24 UTC+2
¿No puede hablar ahora mismo?
Ingrese su pregunta en el chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.