Analysis of Monday's Trades

1H Chart of EUR/USD

On Monday, the EUR/USD currency pair recently attempted to correct for the third time. As shown on the chart, the attempt once again yielded minimal results. The price approached the 1.0596 level for the third time but failed to break through it decisively.

This does not mean that the level is impenetrable, but until it is breached, there is little point in discussing any substantial growth in the euro. Monday was uneventful regarding significant macroeconomic and fundamental developments in the Eurozone and the United States. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde delivered a speech in Europe, but as with her previous appearances, she offered no new or noteworthy information to the market.

This week, the overall news flow and key events are expected to remain sparse. At this point, it is unclear what might drive a stronger euro rally.

5M Chart of EUR/USD

On the 5-minute timeframe, Monday saw the formation of a decent buy signal. This signal emerged during the night, but the price had barely moved from the initial formation point by the start of the European session. Small, long positions remained relevant (even though the overarching trend is strongly bearish). By the end of the day, the price reached the nearest target at 1.0596.

Trading Strategy for Tuesday:

On the hourly timeframe, the EUR/USD pair has again entered a correction. However, the market shows little interest in buying the euro or taking profits from short positions. We believe any new correction is unlikely substantial and would require supportive news for the euro. The market's current bias toward the US dollar would likely persist despite favorable news.

We anticipate a possible resumption of the pair's decline on Tuesday, as Jerome Powell's hawkish rhetoric last week still weighs on the market. Additionally, the price has so far been unable to breach the 1.0596 level, further supporting bearish sentiment.

On the 5-minute TF, the levels of 1.0433-1.0451, 1.0526, 1.0596, 1.0678, 1.0726-1.0733, 1.0797-1.0804, 1.0845-1.0851, 1.0888-1.0896, 1.0940-1.0951 should be considered. On Tuesday, the Eurozone will release the October inflation data (second estimate), while the US will publish a few less significant reports unlikely to elicit a strong market reaction. These reports are unlikely to shift the broader market sentiment, which remains tilted toward the US dollar.

Core Trading System Rules:

1. Signal Strength: The shorter the time it takes for a signal to form (a rebound or breakout), the stronger the signal.
2. False Signals: If two or more trades near a level result in false signals, subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. Flat Markets: In flat conditions, pairs may generate many false signals or none at all. It's better to stop trading at the first signs of a flat market.
4. Trading Hours: Open trades between the start of the European session and the middle of the US session, then manually close all trades.
5. MACD Signals: On the hourly timeframe, trade MACD signals only during periods of good volatility and a clear trend confirmed by trendlines or trend channels.
6. Close Levels: If two levels are too close (5–20 pips apart), treat them as a support or resistance zone.
7. Stop Loss: Set a Stop Loss to breakeven after the price moves 15 pips in the desired direction.

Key Chart Elements:

Support and Resistance Levels: These are target levels for opening or closing positions and can also serve as points for placing Take Profit orders.

Red Lines: Channels or trendlines indicating the current trend and the preferred direction for trading.

MACD Indicator (14,22,3): A histogram and signal line used as a supplementary source of trading signals.

Important Events and Reports: Found in the economic calendar, these can heavily influence price movements. Exercise caution or exit the market during their release to avoid sharp reversals.

Forex trading beginners should remember that not every trade will be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing proper money management are essential for long-term trading success.